.. _refs:

**********
References
**********

.. _Aberson-1998:

| Aberson, S.D., 1998: Five-day Tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North
|   Atlantic Basin. *Weather and Forecasting*,  13, 1005-1015.
|

.. _Adams-2019:

| Adams, S. V., R. W. Ford, M. Hambley, J.M. Hobson, I. Kavčič, C. M. Maynard,
|   T. Melvin, E. H. Müller, S. Mullerworth, A. R. Porter, M. Rezny, B. J. Shipway,
|   and R. Wong, 2019: LFRic: Meeting the challenges of scalability and performance
|   portability in Weather and Climate models. *Journal of Parallel and Distributed Computing*,
|   **132**, 383-396, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpdc.2019.02.007.

.. _Ahijevych-2009:

| Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B.G. Brown, and E.E. Ebert, 2009: Application of
|   spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP-gridded precipitation forecasts.
|   *Weather and Forecasting*, 24 (6), 1485 - 1497.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222298.1
|

.. _Andersen-1996:

| Anderson JL., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts
|   from ensemble model integrations. *J. Clim.* 9: 1518-1530.
|   doi: `https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1518:AMFPAE>2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009\<1518:AMFPAE\>2.0.CO;2>`_
|

.. _Barker-1991:

| Barker, T. W., 1991: The relationship between spread and forecast error in
|   extended-range forecasts. *Journal of Climate*, 4, 733-742.
|

.. _Bradley-2008:

| Bradley, A.A., S.S. Schwartz, and T. Hashino, 2008: Sampling Uncertainty
|   and Confidence Intervals for the Brier Score and Brier Skill Score.
|   *Weather and Forecasting*, 23, 992-1006.
|

.. _Brill-2009:

| Brill, K. F., and F. Mesinger, 2009: Applying a general analytic method
|   for assessing bias sensitivity to bias-adjusted threat and equitable
|   threat scores. *Weather and Forecasting*, 24, 1748-1754.
|

.. _Brown-2007:

| Brown, B.G., R. Bullock, J. Halley Gotway, D. Ahijevych, C. Davis,
|   E. Gilleland, and L. Holland, 2007: Application of the MODE object-based
|   verification tool for the evaluation of model precipitation fields.
|   *AMS 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 18th*
|   *Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction*, 25-29 June, Park City, Utah,
|   American Meteorological Society (Boston), Available at
|   http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124856.pdf.
|

.. _Bröcker-2007:

| Bröcker J, Smith LA., 2007: Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance
|   of being proper. *Weather Forecasting*, 22, 382-388.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF966.1
|

.. _Buizza-1997:

| Buizza, R., 1997: Potential forecast skill of ensemble prediction and spread
|   and skill distributions of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. *Monthly*
|   *Weather Review*, 125, 99-119.
|

.. _Bullock-2016:

| Bullock, R., T. Fowler, and B. Brown, 2016: Method for Object-Based
|   Diagnostic Evaluation. *NCAR Technical Note* NCAR/TN-532+STR, 66 pp.
|

.. _Candille-2007:

| Candille G, Côté C, Houtekamer PL, Pellerin G, 2007: Verification of an
|   ensemble prediction system against observations. *Mon. Weather Rev.*
|   135: 2688-2699.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3414.1
|

.. _Candille-2008:

| Candille, G., and O. Talagrand, 2008: Impact of observational error on the
|   validation of ensemble prediction systems. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal*
|   *Meteorological Society* 134: 959-971.
|

.. _Casati-2004:

| Casati, B., G. Ross, and D. Stephenson, 2004: A new intensity-scale approach
|   for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. *Meteorological*
|   *Applications* 11, 141-154.
|

.. _Davis-2006:

| Davis, C.A., B.G. Brown, and R.G. Bullock, 2006a: Object-based verification
|   of precipitation forecasts, Part I: Methodology and application to
|   mesoscale rain areas. *Monthly Weather Review*, 134, 1772-1784.
|

| Davis, C.A., B.G. Brown, and R.G. Bullock, 2006b: Object-based verification
|   of precipitation forecasts, Part II: Application to convective rain systems.
|   *Monthly Weather Review*, 134, 1785-1795.
|

.. _Dawid-1984:

| Dawid, A.P., 1984: Statistical theory: The prequential approach. *Journal of*
|   *the Royal Statistical Society* A147, 278-292.
|

.. _Ebert-2008:

| Ebert, E.E., 2008: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts:
|   a review and proposed framework. *Meteorological Applications*, 15, 51-64.
|

.. _Ebert-Uphoff-2024:

| Ebert-Uphoff, I.,, 2024: An Investigation of Metrics to Evaluate the Sharpness
|   in AI-Generated Meteorological Imagery. *Draft version - Jan 26, 2024*
|

.. _Eckel-2012:

| Eckel, F. A., M.S. Allen, M. C. Sittel, 2012: Estimation of Ambiguity in
|   Ensemble Forecasts. *Weather Forecasting*, 27, 50-69.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00015.1
|

.. _Efron-2007:

| Efron, B. 2007: Correlation and large-scale significance testing. *Journal*
|   of the American Statistical Association*, 102(477), 93-103.
|

.. _Epstein-1969:

| Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories.
|   *J. Appl. Meteor.*, 8, 985-987.
|   doi: `https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0985:ASSFPF>2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008\<0985:ASSFPF\>2.0.CO;2>`_
|

.. _Ferro-2017:

| Ferro C. A. T., 2017: Measuring forecast performance in the presence of observation error.
|   *Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.*, 143 (708), 2665-2676.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3115
|

.. _Gilleland-2010:

| Gilleland, E., 2010: Confidence intervals for forecast verification.
|   *NCAR Technical Note* NCAR/TN-479+STR, 71pp.
|

.. _Gilleland-2017:

| Gilleland, E., 2017: A new characterization in the spatial verification
|   framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns.
|   *Weather and Forecasting*, 32 (1), 187 - 198.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0134.1
|

.. _Gilleland_PartI-2020:

| Gilleland, E., 2020: Bootstrap methods for statistical inference.
|   Part I: Comparative forecast verification for continuous variables.
|   *Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology*, 37 (11), 2117 - 2134.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0069.1
|

.. _Gilleland_PartII-2020:

| Gilleland, E., 2020: Bootstrap methods for statistical inference.
|   Part II: Extreme-value analysis. *Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic*
|   *Technology*, 37 (11), 2135 - 2144.
|    doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0070.1
|

.. _Gilleland-2021:

| Gilleland, E., 2021: Novel measures for summarizing high-resolution forecast
|   performance. *Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography*,
|   7 (1), 13 - 34.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021
|

.. _Gneiting-2004:

| Gneiting, T., A. Westveld, A. Raferty, and T. Goldman, 2004: *Calibrated*
|   *Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and*
|   *Minimum CRPS Estimation*. Technical Report no. 449, Department of
|   Statistics, University of Washington. Available at
|   http://www.stat.washington.edu/www/research/reports/
|

.. _Haiden-2012:

| Haiden, T., M.J. Rodwell, D.S. Richardson, A. Okagaki, T. Robinson, T. Hewson, 2012:
|   Intercomparison of Global Model Precipitation Forecast Skill in 2010/11
|   Using the SEEPS Score. *Monthly Weather Review*, 140, 2720-2733.
|   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00301.1
|

.. _Hamill-2001:

| Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble
|   forecasts. *Monthly Weather Review*, 129, 550-560.
|

.. _Hersbach-2000:

| Hersbach, H., 2000: Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score
| for Ensemble Prediction Systems. *Weather and Forecasting*, 15, 559-570.
|

.. _Jolliffe-2012:

| Jolliffe, I.T., and D.B. Stephenson, 2012: *Forecast verification. A*
|   *practitioner's guide in atmospheric science.* Wiley and Sons Ltd, 240 pp.
|

.. _Knaff-2003:

| Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, and J.M. Gross, 2003: Statistical,
|   Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology
|   and Persistence. *Weather and Forecasting*, Vol. 18 Issue 2, p. 80-92.
|

.. _Mason-2004:

| Mason, S. J., 2004: On Using "Climatology" as a Reference Strategy
|   in the Brier and Ranked Probability Skill Scores. *Monthly Weather Review*,
|   132, 1891-1895.
|

.. _Mason-2008:

| Mason, S. J., 2008: Understanding forecast verification statistics.
|   *Meteor. Appl.*, 15, 31-40.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.51
|

.. _Mittermaier-2014:

| Mittermaier, M., 2014: A strategy for verifying near-convection-resolving
|   model forecasts at observing sites. *Weather Forecasting*, 29, 185-204.
|

.. _Mood-1974:

| Mood, A. M., F. A. Graybill and D. C. Boes, 1974: *Introduction to the*
|   *Theory of Statistics*, McGraw-Hill, 299-338.
|

.. _Murphy-1969:

| Murphy, A.H., 1969: On the ranked probability score. *Journal of Applied*
|   *Meteorology and Climatology*, 8 (6), 988 - 989,
|   doi: `https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0988:OTPS>2.0.CO;2 <https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008\<0988:OTPS\>2.0.CO;2>`_
|

.. _Murphy-1987:

| Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast
|   verification. *Monthly Weather Review*, 115, 1330-1338.
|

.. _North-2022:

| North, R.C., M.P. Mittermaier, S.F. Milton, 2022. *Using SEEPS with a*
|   TRMM-derived Climatology to Assess Global NWP Precipitation Forecast Skill.
|   *Monthly Weather Review*, 150, 135-155.
|   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0347.1
|

.. _Ou-2016:

| Ou, M. H., Charles, M., & Collins, D. C. 2016: Sensitivity of calibrated week-2
|   probabilistic forecast skill to reforecast sampling of the NCEP global
|   ensemble forecast system. *Weather and Forecasting*, 31(4), 1093-1107.
|

.. _Roberts-2008:

| Roberts, N.M., and H.W. Lean, 2008: Scale-selective verification of rainfall
|   accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events.
|   *Monthly Weather Review*, 136, 78-97.
|

.. _Rodwell-2010:

| Rodwell, M.J., D.S. Richardson, T.D. Hewson and T. Haiden, 2010: A new equitable
|   score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction.
|   *Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society*, 136: 1344-1463.
|   https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.656
|

.. _Rodwell-2011:

| Rodwell, M.J., T. Haiden, D.S. Richardson, 2011: Developments in Precipitation
|   Verification. *ECMWF Newsletter* Number 128.
|   https://www.ecmwf.int/node/14595
|

.. _Röpnack-2013:

| Röpnack A, Hense A, Gebhardt C, Majewski D., 2013: Bayesian model verification
|   of NWP ensemble forecasts. *Mon. Weather Rev.* 141: 375–387.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00350.1
|

.. _Saetra-2004:

| Saetra Ø., H. Hersbach, J-R Bidlot, D. Richardson, 2004: Effects of
|   observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and
|   reliability. *Monthly Weather Review*, 132: 1487-1501.
|

.. _Santos-2012:

| Santos C. and A. Ghelli, 2012: Observational probability method to assess
|   ensemble precipitation forecasts. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal*
|   *Meteorological Society* 138: 209-221.
|

.. _Schwartz-2017:

| Schwartz C. and Sobash R., 2017: Generating Probabilistic Forecasts from
|   Convection-Allowing Ensembles Using Neighborhood Approaches: A Review
|   and Recommendations. *Monthly Weather Review*, 145, 3397-3418.
|

.. _Skamarock-2012:

| Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, M. G. Duda, L. D. Fowler, S. Park, and
|   T. Ringler, 2012: A Multiscale Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Model Using
|   Centroidal Voronoi Tesselations and C-Grid Staggering. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*,
|   **140**, 3090-3105, doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00215.1.
|

.. _Stephenson-2000:

| Stephenson, D.B., 2000: Use of the "Odds Ratio" for diagnosing
|   forecast skill. *Weather and Forecasting*, 15, 221-232.
|

.. _Stephenson-2008:

| Stephenson, D.B., B. Casati, C.A.T. Ferro, and C.A. Wilson, 2008: The extreme
|   dependency score: A non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events.
|   *Meteorological Applications* 15, 41-50.
|

.. _Tödter-2012:

| Tödter, J. and B. Ahrens, 2012: Generalization of the Ignorance Score:
|   Continuous ranked version and its decomposition. *Monthly Weather Review*,
|   140 (6), 2005 - 2017.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00266.1
|

.. _Weniger-2016:

| Weniger, M., F. Kapp, and P. Friederichs, 2016: Spatial Verification Using
|   Wavelet Transforms: A Review. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal*
|   *Meteorological Society*, 143, 120-136.
|

.. _Wilks-2010:

| Wilks, D.S. 2010: Sampling distributions of the Brier score and Brier skill
|   score under serial dependence. *Quarterly Journal of the Royal*
|   *Meteorological Society*, 136, 2109-2118.
|   doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.709
|

.. _Wilks-2011:

| Wilks, D., 2011: *Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences.*
|   Elsevier, San Diego.
|